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Today the U. Most governments today accept a deep economic interdependence among nations created by decades of trade and investment globalization. But those expecting a so-called V-shaped economic recovery, a scenario in which vaccinemakers conquer COVID and everybody goes straight back to work, or even a smooth and steady longer-term bounce-back like the one that followed the global financial crisis a decade ago, are going to be disappointed.
There is no commonly accepted definition of the term. But there are three factors that separate a true economic depression from a mere recession. First, the impact is global. Third, its bad effects will linger longer. A depression is not a period of uninterrupted economic contraction.
There can be periods of temporary progress within it that create the appearance of recovery. The Great Depression of the s began with the stock-market crash of October and continued into the early s, when World War II created the basis for new growth. That period included two separate economic drops: first from to , and then again from May into They change the way we live.
The Great Recession created very little lasting change. Some elected leaders around the world now speak more often about wealth inequality, but few have done much to address it. They were rewarded with a period of solid, long-lasting recovery. In addition, political dysfunction—in the U. As the financial crisis took hold, there was no debate among Democrats and Republicans about whether the emergency was real. In , there is little consensus on what to do and how to do it.
Higher prices have been a hallmark of the recovery, but in July, consumer price inflation began to moderate. Job growth has been booming, with more than , jobs added in both June and July.
For August, economists predict another , jobs added, according to Refinitiv. The August jobs report will come out next week Friday. With companies keen to hire and take advantage of the reopened economy and many workers still hesitant to put themselves at risk, the mismatch between labor demand and supply will likely continue in the face of the variant.
That said, each resurgence in the virus has resulted in less and less economic damage, said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers -- not least because state and local governments have become hesitant to lock down their economies again, instead pushing vaccines and masking indoors.
It will be another two months until we get some bigger picture data with the third quarter gross domestic product numbers, the single broadest measure of economic activity. Until then, the jury is still out on how much of a mark Delta will leave on the pandemic recovery.
What businesses say. The reaction to Delta among American businesses isn't unanimous, either. Davidson, said in an email. That's why hospitality and leisure, once again, will be worse affected by the resurgence in Covid cases than other areas of the economy, including shops. But other major retailers that reported earnings last week remained cautiously optimistic regarding sales for the rest of the year. Big box giants Walmart WMT and Target CBDY said shoppers have been returning to stores in recent months and stocking up on back-to-school supplies, clothing, beauty, food and other essential items.
Customers "have emerged from a year in which digital was the primary growth driver and they're now returning to our stores in droves," Target CEO Brian Cornell said on a call with analysts last week.
And our traffic patterns, I think, represent that, as we see this consistent flow of traffic into our stores," he added.
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